Team Number: 88
Team Number: 88
School Name: Silver High School
Area of Science: Microbiology
Project Title: The Plausible Harmful Widespread Effects of the Smallpox Virus as Related to Biological Warfare
Title: The Plausible Harmful Widespread Effects of the Smallpox
Virus as Related to Biological Warfare
Area of Science: Microbiology
Definition of Problem: Throughout history, smallpox has been an
international plague. At one point in time, the smallpox vaccine
was administered regularly in this country. However, due to the
eradication of the smallpox disease in the 1970's, smallpox
vaccinations ceased in the United States in 1972. Although it is
not known exactly how much vaccine is in existence today, all
vaccine production facilities were dismantled after 1980. With
recent events and the fact that stores of the virus still exist in
the United States and Russia, the public has become very aware of
the possibility of biological warfare. It has come to our
attention that smallpox, specifically the virus Variola major, if
used as a biological weapon, may have devastating effects.
Furthermore, there are several factors that fuel the concern.
Smallpox is historically known as one of the most serious of all
pestilential diseases, it is corporally disfiguring, the virus
spreads directly from person to person, there is no known
treatment for the virus after infection, and it bears a 30 percent
fatality rate. To top it off, no one in the United States has
been vaccinated during the past 25 years and it is probable that
any vaccination immunity previously acquired through these routine
vaccinations has indubitably waned. This is a grave problem that
affects us all.
These questions remain: If smallpox were used as
a biological weapon, just how devastating would these effects be?
If, perhaps, a biological attack did take place on home soil,
would our country be ready to combat the outbreak?
We have set out to create a program to answer these questions. The
purpose of our project is to determine just how many people would
be affected if such an outbreak did occur. We will mimic a
somewhat subtle introduction of the virus into our country
beginning with human-to-human contact. Next, we will calculate how
many people could become infected in a worst-case scenario over a
fixed amount of time. We will then have an idea of how devastating
an outbreak could be. These numbers may then be used to aid in the
preparation of our country as far as vaccination and general
awareness are concerned.
Our Plan for Solving the Problem Computationally:
Our first consideration is the amount of people in areas where the
virus is first introduced. It will be introduced into an airport.
Based on statistics, averages, and inferences, we will determine
how many people logically may be in the area and may be
susceptible to exposure. Then, using the equations and
indications of exponential growth again and again, and also using
very logical numbers for those susceptible to infection, we will
demonstrate how widespread this disease may be. We will take into
consideration several variables including incubation period of the
virus, etc. Our program will then be run on a supercomputer using
our specified equations, and it will develop a result, which will
be the number of people that may be infected.
Description of Progress to Date:
To date, we have done a great amount of research, which our
project requires. We have consulted a medical professional to get
additional information and insight on the smallpox virus. We have
also been working with our mathematics mentor to develop the
specific equations intrinsic to our project. Using various
sources, we have extensively researched the smallpox virus,
including its history, effects, incubation period and stages of
infection, as well as visual symptoms and vaccines. To keep
ourselves organized and on track, we have outlined our program and
its components.
Expected Results:
Based on the principles of exponential growth (the idea of a great
increase over a short period of time), we believe that our program
will show that several thousands of people, if not more, will be
affected by the spread of the smallpox disease. With this
knowledge, we will then have an educated idea of much vaccine may
be needed in the case of an attack, based on the amount needed per
person. This program will give insight into just how destructive
this disease may be, if introduced with the intent of doing harm.
It will then be known just how prepared our country must be for a
biological attack.
Sources:
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/Agent/Smallpox/SmallpoxConsensus.pdf
http://cryptome.org/smallpox-wmd.htm
Hewitt, Paul G. Conceptual Physics: The High School Physics
Program, Second Edition. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company: Menlo Park,
California. 1992.
Braunwald, Eugene M.D. et al. Harrison's Principles of Internal
Medicine: Volume 2. McGraw Hill Professional Publishing: Boston, MA.
1998.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/henderson.htm
http://www.who.int/emc/diseases/smallpox/
http://msnbc.com/news/242194.asp#BODY/
Dr. Bill Neely, M.D.
Peggy Larisch, teacher
Joy Garcia, teacher
Team Members
Sponsoring Teacher and Mentor