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<BODY> <P>Viewing this page requires a browser capable of displaying frames.</P> <P>Here is what is on the frame page :</P> <P> </P> <P><CENTER><FONT SIZE=+1>Modeling the Frequency of Bear Contacts in Rocky Mountain Contacts in Rocky Mountain Residential Areas<BR> </FONT>Environmental Sciences<BR> New Mexico High School<BR> Supercomputing Challenge<BR> Final Report<BR> April 5, 2000</CENTER></P> <P><CENTER>Team 030</CENTER></P> <P><CENTER>Bosque Preparatory School</CENTER></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P ALIGN=RIGHT> </P> <P><CENTER>Team Members<BR> Samuel Ashmore<BR> Nicole Mumma<BR> Kenny Sutherland</CENTER></P> <P><CENTER>Teachers<BR> Debra M. Loftin<BR> Dorothy Ashmore</CENTER></P> <P><CENTER>Project Mentors<BR> Geoffrey Combers<BR> Hal Meyer<BR> <BR> <BR> </CENTER></P> <P><BR> Executive Summary</P> <P>Our modeling began with a simple Malthusian growth model . In a real life situation, bears grow with bounds. We then modified it to a Logistic Growth program which became the core of our program. To accurately model a bear population, we needed to incorporate variable such as harvest rate, desired territory, migration rate, territory size, growth rate for the territory and habitat loss. Our program was basically a logistic growth model with hunting and habitat loss with regions. The input variables are population size, growth rate, carrying capacity, cycles, harvest rate, and area reduction rate/capacity reduction. If you run the program, you get two types of output. We got our data from trustworthy sources.</P> <P>Introduction<BR> The purpose of our project is to model the frequency of a mammal coming in contact with a growing residential area. Some people are concerned that this behavior could negatively effect the bear population. Albuquerque alone is supposed to reach a population of one million people by the end of 2001. Therefore the bears will be left with less open space in the years to come. In past years, the media has had stories about bears wandering into residential areas, having to be tranquilized, and relocated. We felt that perhaps the media was overplaying the intensity of the situation, so we thought we could write a program that could accurately tell us how rare it would be that a bear would come in contact with a residential area. A bear may come in contact with a residential area for many reasons, some of which are a lack of food, a loss of shelter, or a loss of a battle with another bear. <BR> The Model</P> <P>Our modeling began with a simple Malthusian growth model. From there it became a logistic growth model. We used the logistic growth equation for the basic population modeling equation as the core of our program. To develop a more complete and accurate model of a real population, more variables were incorporated into the program. A logistic growth model models a population with a growth rate and carrying capacity. To accurately model a bear population, we needed to incorporate variables such as harvest rate, desired territory, migration rate, territory size, and growth rate for the territory. In our program the user must input the values for each of the variables. For each time the user chooses to continue, a new set of data is given and a graph is produced and updated. The grid shown is divided up into acres. Each acre is either an open area or a residential area. Each of them is given a "desirability" value. Desirability is assigned by the following statements: 1) The more surrounded an open area is by open areas, the more desirable that area becomes. 2) The more surrounded a residential area is by residential areas, the less desirable that residential area becomes. 3) The more surrounded an open area is by residential areas, the more desirable the residential areas become. 4) The more surrounded a residential area is by open area, the less desirable the residential area becomes. 5) The more enclosed an open area is by open areas, the higher the altitude. Therefore assigning more or less desirability to specific altitudes is based on which of a bears favorite foods grow at what altitude.<BR> Project Description</P> <P>We started out with a simple program comprised of a Mathusian model equation, a horrible interface, and a horrible output. From here, we swapped out the equation for a logistic growth model. We improved the interface and the output. Then for the model we added hunting and designed it to print out the information into a file. Then we added habitat loss to the program. After much work, we created a web interface for the program. Then we added zones and once we had accomplished that we added migration. That is how our program evolved. During this time we gathered data. After identifying the useful data, we used it in our project.</P> <P>Bear Research<BR> To validate our model it was necessary to input real data about bears into our program. This information needed to include all variables in our program. To get this specific data we used the internet and email to get the dat from all of the Game and Fish Departments in the Rocky Mountains, located inNew Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and parts of Northern Idaho. <BR> We got all of our research from two general areas. The first was generic bear information. This data included what they eat, their life span, and territory size. This information was acquired from several different web sites from all over the country. The information was always from an 'accurate' place. We looked at the North America Bear Association, and several newspapers from local areas. What we found, for the most part, is that bears are little more than herbivores. Less than 2% of their diets include meat. However, the bears further north in Canada and Alaska eat more fish due to a lack of plants. The life span of a bear is generally 20-25 years. Cubs spend the first two or so years with their mothers, then they are left to fend for themselves. Females can begin to have offspring at around age 4-5. On average female bears will produce about 3-5 cubs every 3-4 years. The territory size depends on the region, but on average male bears need about 10-40 square miles of land, while females need only 2.5-10 square miles. If the capacity of the region becomes full bears are more inclined to fight with each other and wander out of their regions into residential areas. <BR> The second set of data that we got was from several Fish and Game Departments. From them we got information on the variables that we would need to input into our program to test its accuracy. The population size is first, and most important, because it is the starting and ending point of our program. It defines the amount of change that will occur in the program. The next most important piece of data is the hunting rate. The hunting rate is important because from it we can extrapolate the number of deaths. When we subtracted the hunting deaths over an x year span and then divided the two populations, we derived the growth rate. In this research, carrying capacity is the entire state. <BR> Population Model Research<BR> Our program started out as a Malthusian growth model. This is not a very good model because at first it follows the program exactly, but then it continues to grow exponentially without bounds. To level this out we put a carrying capacity variable into the program, which limits the amount of bears that can exist.</P> <P>C++ Program<BR> We created program from a mathematical model. Mathematical models are usually one-line equations that researchers can do in excel. However, we used multiple equations to compute our final answer. We used equations that would change variables that created a loop by changing a variable that was essential to anther equation which eventually effects several other variables and come back and effects the variable that was just changed. This type of program is known as recursive. We used four equations using the same variables to compute the population statistics. Our team designed all of these equations especially for this program.<BR> Our program started out as a simple Malthusian growth program. A Malthusian model is a model that grows without bounds. Here is and example :. However, this program was not adequate for our objective because the program would grow without bounds. In a real life situation, bears grow with bounds. We then modified it to a logistic growth program. Here we had bounds and the population was predictable because it would level out based on the carrying capacity. Our next problem was modeling the hunting. We added a harvest rate based on the number of pelts hunters collected in a year. We then had a logistic growth model with harvesting. Now it would level off much lower and it contained hunting. Then we had to face the problem of cities. We knew they sometime grew into bear territory, so we had to add habitat loss. We added it to a logistic growth model with hunting. Our habitat loss rate was based on very rough data that we have collected over the Internet. At Regionals, we talked to some scientists who gave us the idea of having multiple regions instead of one. We modified our program once again by adding regional logistic growth. Our program was basically a logistic growth model with hunting and habitat loss with regions. We ultimately wanted to be able to monitor the number of times a bear would come in contact with a residential area by migrating in to a new region. We had to add a new variable called migration. Migration is based on the bears' territory size and how often and quickly they move. Up until now, there was no place for the bears to migrate to.<BR> Our program has many different parts. The biggest are input, output, and the evolution of our program. The input variables are population size, growth rate, carrying capacity, cycles, harvest rate, and area reduction rate/capacity reduction. The population size value is the number of bears living in the modeling space. Growth rate is the rate at which the bear population is growing. Carrying capacity is the maximum number of bears that the land can sustain. The cycles are the number of years for which the program to run (modeled years not actual years). Harvest rate is the percent of bears killed per year. Area reduction rate is the percent of reduction of the Carrying Capacity. The Capacity reduction is the same as the area reduction rate except it is a fixed number. Since the area reduction rate and capacity reduction have the same purpose, only one can be used, not both. <BR> The output comes in one or two ways; this depends on whether the program is run or the site. 1) From the site the numbers entered are displayed in tabular form and a time date stamp. This comes from the file that the program writes. Underneath the redisplayed input is a table, which displays the population for each year. Underneath that, if the browser is setup up right, is a table that is custom designed for the input. 2) If the program is run, two types of output are given off. One is the table that displays the population for each year on the screen. The second output is a separate file. This file has a time date stamp that lets the user know when it was created. It would be this file that would be imported onto the web page if when the programis run from the site. This file also has the table and input numbers. Our equations for population looks like this: population = population + (growth_rate * population *( (1 - population/carrying_capacity))) - population * harvest_rate, where population is the population size of the species, growth_rate is the growth rate, carrying_capacity is the carrying capacity, and harvest_rate is the percent of bears killed. Our equation for habitat loss looks like this: carrying_capacity=carrying_capacity*(1-habitat_loss_percent)-habitat_loss_fixed, where habitat_loss_percent is the percent of the habitat lost, habitat_loss_fixed is the fixed number of habitats lost. The desire equation is Desirability= (1- (population/carrying_capacity), where Desirability is the amount desirable. The migration equation is Population1 = (1- desirability0 /desirability1)) * population0 + population1. Our last equation is Poulation0 = (desirability0 / desirability1) * population0. This program can be run at mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/ ~ch030sra /final.cgi. Here is an example of the zones: <BR> We call this type of model a zone migration model. If our group did not proceed systematically that our project would have been way over our heads and we would not understand it as much as we do. From this project we have learned that you must think big but act slowly and in pieces.<BR> Results and Conclusions<BR> The program that we used worked very well, and it was able to model a bear population within a reasonable amount of change. Assuming that our program was flawless, we believe that whatever discrepancies appear come from a lack of complete data to input into the program. Even so, the only way we could get a perfect comparison would be if every bear's life was monitored. Since the purpose of our program is to model a population without having to go out and watch every one discrepancies have to be allowed.<BR> Now that our program has been completed we can begin to use it in reallife applications. The first is to monitor a small bear population and see how long it will take it to be large enough to allow hunting.<BR> Probably the most important use for our program is for construction companies. If a contractor were planning to build homes near the edge of a city, she/he could use our program to model the number of bear encounters that the residents would have, and to determine how appealing the nearby areas would be so that the bears would find areas other than a city in which to find food and live in.<BR> Our program is also moldable to several other species. The only things that the species need to have as part of the species lifestyle are the variables that are in our program. An example of this usage would be to run the program on mice that carry the plague in the area of New Mexico. The zones include city areas like the West Side, or the East Mountains, or counties like Bernalillo or Sandoval. <BR> Recommendations<BR> We need to make a much more user friendly input because if the user wanted to run the program with 100 cells it would be difficult.<BR> Acknowledgments<BR> We would like to thank Mrs. Ashmore, Ms Loften, Mr. Comber and Mr Myers for helping us out though out the project.</P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P>References</P> <P>Practical C++ Programming, O'Reilly,1997, Steve Qualine;<BR> Perl, The Programmer's Companion, Wiley, 1997, Nigel Chapman;<BR> 2.3.5Mathematical Modeling, Sandia labs, http://ais.cs.sandia.gov/AiS/textbook/unit2/ projdev2.3.5.html <BR> Bears head south, driven by hunger, mating Experts predict more interaction with humans as animal's numbers grow, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel; Milwaukee; Jun 28, 1999; MEG JONES;</P> <P>BEARS THREATENED BY POACHING, POLLUTION, DEFORESTATION, Columbian; Vancouver; Aug 1, 1999; AP;</P> <P>DURANGO Ursine intruders get pretty hard to bear Food shortages boost contact with humans, Denver Post; Denver, Cob.; Sep 6, 1999; Electa Draper Denver Post Four Corners Bureaw</P> <P>OUTDOORS ALMANAC Bear season a bust for many bunters, Star Tribune; Minneapolis, Minn.; Oct 24, 1999; Doug Smith; Staff Writer;</P> <P>State considers proposal to allow black bear hunts; Residents say growing population of animals a nuisance, The Sun; Baltimore, Md.; Jan 20, 2000; Greg Garland'</P> <P>California bear hunt shows population is on upswing, Las Vegas Review - Journal; Las Vegas; Dec 9, 1999; John Kimak;</P> <P>U.S. authorities report rising cases of bear poaching Hunters make money off sale of galibladders, paws, claws of animal, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel; Milwaukee; Feb 21, 1999; MARIA GLOD AND LEEF SMITH;</P> <P>IT'S A BEAR MARKET BUT WITH THE DROUGHT AFFECTING, Pittsburgh Post - Gazette; Pittsburgh, Pa.; Nov 14, 1999;</P> <P>Bear eludes capture in Ramona, The San Diego Union - Tribune; San Diego, Calif; Nov 9, 1999; Bruce Lieberman;</P> <P>Biologists, environmentalists debate whether migration will boost bear numbers, Officials find tagged animals on Canadian soil, Idaho Statesman; Boise; Nov 16, 1999;</P> <P>Legal claim says feds can't link grizzly groups Environmentalists say bear numbers still are too low, Idaho Statesman; Boise; Nov 25, 1999;</P> <P>Maryland's bear population showing new, bristling health, The Sun; Baltimore, Md.; Dec 16, 1999; Peter Baker;</P> <P>NORTH AMERICAN BLACK BEAR, Bear Country USA, http://www.bearcountryusa.com/animals/bear.htm;</P> <P>Reports/By Date, Unknown, http://domino.htcomp.net/bhn/bear.nsf/861ba1 1601 8cd870862563b00004524d?OpenView;</P> <P>Reports/By Area, Unknown, http://domino.htcomp.net/bhn/bear.nsf1c39e9f73a9fS 1 5fd8625 63b0000a8 195 ?OpenView</P> <P>American Black Bears, "THE BEAR DEN", http :I/www. nature-net. com/bears/black html;</P> <P>Canadian Grizzly Population Sizes, CERI, http://www.grizzlybear.org/gbmap/cosewics.html</P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P>Appendices</P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>Appendix A</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//*************************************************************</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//Bosque Preparatory School Growth Program</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//*************************************************************</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <stdlib.h></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <iostream></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <iomanip></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <fstream></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <string></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <cassert></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#include <time.h></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#define region 2</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#define regions 2</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>class Territory{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>public:</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double population ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double carrying_capacity;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double growth_rate ;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double harvest_rate ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double desire;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double habitat_loss_rate;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double habitat_loss_fix;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>void update();</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>};</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>void Territory::update()</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>population = population + (growth_rate * population *( (1 - population/carrying_capacity))) - population * harvest_rate;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>Territory area[region][regions];</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double cycles =0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double times =0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>// must be one</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double time_interval =1;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>int timer =0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>int timers =0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>time_t t;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>char* s;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double get_input(char* input_value);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>int main()</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//continue loop (contine is used instead of continue because continue is a C++ variable)</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//Explanation of program</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "This is a logistic growth program\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Population is the population at time 0 \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Growth rate is the rate of growth \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Carrying capacity is how much the land can hold \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << " Cycles the number of units that you want it to run \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << " Harvest rate is the decimal percent harvested \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Habitat losses are percent for rate and a interger for fix\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer < region ; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers < regions; timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "grid" << timer << ", " << timers << "\n" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//Information input</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].population = get_input("population");</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].growth_rate = get_input("growth rate");</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity =get_input("carrying capacity");</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].harvest_rate = get_input( "harvest rate");</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].habitat_loss_rate= get_input( "habitat loss rate");</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].habitat_loss_fix= get_input( "habitat loss fix");</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cycles =get_input("number of cycles");</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>// the name of output file</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Enter the name of the output file: ";</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>string outfilename;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cin >> outfilename;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << outfilename << endl;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//output file writingi</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "0";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>ofstream outStream(outfilename.data());</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "1";</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>assert( outStream.is_open());</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>t = time(NULL);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>s= ctime(&t);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << s ;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream <<"Logistical Growth Results: \n ";</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "The original population is: ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer <region; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers <regions;timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << area[timer][timers].population << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n\t\t\t\t" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "The growth rate is: ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer <region; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers <regions;timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << area[timer][timers].growth_rate << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n\t\t\t" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\nThe carrying capacity is: ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer <region; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers <regions;timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n\t\t\t" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\nThe habitat loss fixed amount is: ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer <region; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers <regions;timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << area[timer][timers].habitat_loss_fix << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n\t\t\t" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\nThe habitat loss rate is: ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer <region; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers <regions;timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << area[timer][timers].habitat_loss_rate << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n\t\t\t" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\nThe harvest rate is: ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer =0; timer <region; timer ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers <regions;timers++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << area[timer][timers].harvest_rate << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n\t\t\t" ;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\nThe number of cycles is: " << cycles << "\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "Time \t population\n\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Time \t population \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>times =0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//main loop</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(times= 0; times <= cycles; times++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << times << "\t ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << times << "\t ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer=0; timer < region; timer++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers=0; timers < regions; timers++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << setiosflags(ios::fixed) << setprecision(2) << area[timer][timers].population << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << setiosflags(ios::fixed) << setprecision(2) << area[timer][timers].population << "\t";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//Time adder</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//THE EQUATION</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].update();</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity = area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity *(1-area[timer][timers].habitat_loss_rate) -area[timer][timers].habitat_loss_fix;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].desire = 1-(area[timer][timers].population/area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << area[timer][timers].desire << "\t";</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if(area[timer][timers].population <0){</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].population = 0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if(area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity < 0){</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].carrying_capacity = 0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timer=0; timer < region; timer++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>for(timers =0; timers < regions; timers ++)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>try</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if( area[timer][timers].desire > area[timer +1][timers].desire )</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].population =(1-( area[timer +1][timers].desire/area[timer][timers].desire)) * area[timer+1][timers].population + area[timer][timers].population;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer+1][timers].population = ( area[timer+1][timers].desire/area[timer][timers].desire) * area[timer+1][timers].population;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if( area[timer][timers].desire < area[timer +1][timers].desire )</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer+1][timers].population =(1-( area[timer ][timers].desire/area[timer+1][timers].desire)) * area[timer][timers].population + area[timer+1][timers].population;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].population = ( area[timer][timers].desire/area[timer+1][timers].desire) * area[timer][timers].population;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>catch(...)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>try</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if( area[timer][timers].desire > area[timer ][timers+1].desire )</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers].population =(1-( area[timer ][timers+1].desire/area[timer][timers].desire)) * area[timer][timers+1].population + area[timer][timers].population;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers+1].population = ( area[timer][timers+1].desire/area[timer][timers].desire) * area[timer][timers+1].population;</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if( area[timer][timers].desire < area[timer][timers+1].desire )</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers+1].population =(1-( area[timer ][timers].desire/area[timer][timers+1].desire)) * area[timer][timers].population + area[timer][timers+1].population;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>area[timer][timers+1].population = ( area[timer][timers+1].desire/area[timer][timers+1].desire) * area[timer][timers].population;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>catch(...)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream << "\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>outStream.close();</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>return 0;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double get_input(char* input_value)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>// input section</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>double num;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>num = -9991;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>//bad number phase</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>while (num < -9990)</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>{</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout << "Please enter the "<< input_value << " : ";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cin >> num;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if (!cin.good()) {</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cout <<"bad input data" << endl;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cin.clear();</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>cin.ignore(200,'\n');</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>// cin.clear();</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>// cin.ignore(200,'\n');</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>return num;</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>Apendix B</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>#!/usr/bin/perl<BR> print "Content-type:text/html\n\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print "<html><head><title>Bosque School's Model</title></head></html>\n";<BR> print "<body>";<BR> print "<center><h1>Model</h1></center>";<BR> print <<EndForm;<BR> @population = ("");<BR> @growth = ("");<BR> @hunting = ("");<BR> @capacity = ("");<BR> @habitatr = ("");<BR> @habitatf = ("");<BR> @years=();<BR> <form action="samuel.cgi" method = "GET"><BR> <pre> population = <input type="number" name ="population00" value= @population[0]> population = <input type="number" name ="population00" value=@population[1]><BR> growth rate = <input type="number" name ="growth00" value= @growth[0]> growth rate = <input type="number" name ="growth00" value= @growth[1]><BR> hunting rate = <input type="number" name ="hunting00" value =@hunting[0]> hunting rate = <input type="number" name ="hunting00" value =$FORM{'hunting01'}><BR> carrying capacity = <input type="number" name ="capacity00" value=@capacity[0]> carrying capacity = <input type="number" name ="capacity00" value=@capacity[1]><BR> habitat loss rate= <input type="number" name ="habitat" value= @habitatr[0] > habitat loss rate= <input type="number" name ="habitatl" value=@habitatr[1] ><BR> habitat loss fix = <input type="number" name ="habitatr" value= @habitatf[0] > habitat loss fixed= <input type="number" name ="habitatr" value= @habitatf[1] ></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>population = <input type="number" name ="population00" value=@population[2]> population = <input type="number" name ="population00" value=@population[3]><BR> growth rate = <input type="number" name ="growth00" value= @growth[2]> growth rate = <input type="number" name ="growth00" value= @growth[3]><BR> hunting rate = <input type="number" name ="hunting00" value = @hunting[2]> hunting rate = <input type="number" name ="hunting00" value =@hunting[3]><BR> carrying capacity = <input type="number" name ="capacity00" value=@capacity[2]> carrying capacity = <input type="number" name ="capacity00" value=@capacity[3]><BR> habitat loss rate= <input type="number" name ="habitat" value= @habitatr[2] > habitat loss rate= <input type="number" name ="habitatl" value= @habitatr[3] ><BR> habitat loss fix = <input type="number" name ="habitatr" value= @habitatf[2] > habitat loss fixed= <input type="number" name ="habitatr" value= @habitatf[3] ></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>Number of years = <input type="number" name ="years" value=years><BR> <input type="submit" value = "Run Modeling Program"></pre><BR> </form></FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>EndForm</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print "</body></html>";</FONT></P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>if (@population[0] eq "" or @population[1] eq ""or @population[2] eq ""or @population[3] eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Population and submit";<BR> }<BR> elsif(@growth[0] eq "" or @growth[1] eq "" or @growth[2] eq "" or @growth[3] eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Growth Rate and submit";<BR> }<BR> elsif(@capacity[0] eq "" or @capacity[1] eq ""or @capacity[2] eq ""or @capacity[3] eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Carrying Capacity and submit";<BR> }<BR> elsif($FORM{'years'} eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Number of Years and submit";<BR> }<BR> elsif(@hunting[0] eq "" or @hunting[1] eq "" or @hunting[2] eq "" or @hunting[3] eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Hunting Rate and submit";<BR> }<BR> elsif( @habitatr[0] eq "" or @habitatr[1] eq "" or @habitatr[2] eq "" or @habitatr[0] eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Hunting Rate and submit";<BR> }<BR> elsif( @habitatf[0] eq "" or @habitatf[1] eq "" or @habitatf[2] eq "" or @habitatf[3] eq ""){<BR> print "Please enter the Hunting Rate and submit";<BR> }</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>else {</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>open (INPUT, "| ../project/a.out > /dev/null");<BR> print INPUT "@population[0]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@growth[0]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@capacity0]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@hunting[0]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatr[0] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatf[0] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@population[1]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@growth[1]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@capacity[1]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@hunting[1']\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatr[1] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatf[1] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@population[2]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@growth[2]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@capacity[2]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT @hunting[2]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatr[2] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatf[2] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@population[3]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@growth[3]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@capacity[3]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@hunting[3]\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatr[3] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@habitatf[3] \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "@years\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print INPUT "./sam.out\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>close (INPUT);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>open (PLOT, "| /usr/bin/gnuplot > /dev/null");<BR> print PLOT "set terminal png\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "set output './bears.png'\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "set title 'population' \n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "set xlabel 'years'\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "set ylabel 'number of bears'\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "set time\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "set grid\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "plot './sam.out' with lines\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "replot\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "replot\n";</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print PLOT "replot\n";<BR> close (PLOT);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>$INPUT_RECORD_SEPARATOR = '\n';<BR> open(INF, "./sam.out");<BR> @b = <INF>;<BR> print <<EndData; <BR> <pre><BR> @b</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1><img src="./bears.png" alt="graph" border=0><BR> </pre><BR> EndData</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>close(INF);</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>}</FONT></P> <P><FONT SIZE=-1>print "</body></html>";</FONT> </P> <P><A HREF="http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/~ch030sra/final.cgi">Run The Program</A> </BODY>