Team: 23
School: Los Alamos Mid
Area of Science: Biostatistics
Interim: Team Number: 023
School Name: Los Alamos Middle school
Area of Science: Biological computing
Project Title: COVID19 spreading model
Problem Definition:
COVID19 is an unexpected virus that has currently shut down the USA. It is causing a lot of unexpected closures and harm to the economy and is causing many more issues.
Problem Solution: I created a spreading model for this virus using agent based python modeling. Virtual people in the community will move randomly and interact with each other. Based on the interaction and people movement, the simulated population will be classified as susceptible, infected, and removed. I will try to code the simulation to come as close to the everyday movement of a human such as people gathering in a central location, people going to their home location, and isolation of infected humans. The spread is suppressed by preventing measures like mandating masks, opening hospitals, and isolating the sick.
A series of simulated results from the current programing provides a clear insight of if some preventive measures like masks and quarantine are more effective over no preventing measures applied.
Progress to Date:
I currently have coded sophisticated move patterns that move humans to central gathering places and homes and hospitals. The spreading module has been coded so that people can spread the virus during the simulation and boundaries have been set. Extra features such as masks and isolation have been incorporated. Humans are created using a class function that acts like a blueprint. They have variables like status, location, days infected to help with processing their movement choices.
Expected Results:
After running the program multiple times I expect results on which preventing measures will be the most impactful in terms of flattening the curve of the spread of the virus. The program will give me data on if masks are more efficient that isolation, or vice versa.
Team Members: Hayden Kim
Sponsoring Teacher: Jun Kim
Reference
COVID19 rÓ¨: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7538841/
SIR modeling: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7321055/
Agent based modeling: http://datasciencechalktalk.com/2020/06/07/understanding-agent-based-model-with-python/
Plotting: https://matplotlib.org/
COVID lasting rates (other COVID data): https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-long-does-coronavirus-last
Team Members:
Sponsoring Teacher: Jun Kim