Team: 23
School: Los Alamos Mid
Area of Science: Biostatistics
Proposal: Hayden Kim
COVID-19 spread model with python
My question is, can I simulate a COVID-19 spreading model using python, and, how much of a difference will the control variables such as, social distancing, wearing masks, quarantine, central marketplaces, gathering and isolation, make to the spreading of this disease? I will answer this question by simulating a “town†or “city†with a population of 100 people moving around inside of set boundaries. The purpose of this project is to find out which methods of “spreading the curve†work most effectively. In this project, I would like to find a balance. Things like social distancing, and wearing masks are not that hard, whereas, quarantine, and isolation are more distancing and take a lot more effort. I would like to find the best way to spread the curve without overdoing it with isolation.
My plan of action is to simulate this in Python. First, I will start with getting the people to move around and slowly spread the disease. Then I will move on to extra things; people learning to socially distance or wear masks. If time permits, then I would like to give each member a “home†which will be a set of coordinates that the person returns to often.
This simulation is going to be an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered/Removed) model. No visual aids are going to be added except for a graph that is constantly updated on susceptible, infected, and recovered/removed people. I will be using Coronavirus statistics from the links below.
1.https://www.dailylobo.com/article/2020/04/coronavirus-in-new-mexico-by-the-numbers
2.https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/ng-interactive/2020/apr/22/see-how-coronavirus-can-spread-through-a-population-and-how-countries-flatten-the-curve
Team Members:
Sponsoring Teacher: Jun Kim