Team: 15
School: New Mexico School for the Arts
Area of Science: Environmental
Interim: Team Number: 15
School Name: New Mexico School for the Arts
Area of Science: Environmental
Project Title: El Heavn (Hearing, Exploring, Analyzing, Visualizing, Nubes)
Problem Definition
Forest Fires are natural processes and are necessary for healthy resilient forests. Disasters can happen when wildfire spread is not completely understood. Houses burn down and people are unable to evacuate from the path of a wildfire. Mapping the spread patterns of wildfires makes it possible to efficiently contain active wildfires and predict future wildfires. As well as predicting the fire movement based on a fire’s current location and attributes, we can use computer modeling to visualize smoke patterns and plumes. This plume imaging can help us decipher the source of the heat, and therefore we can more accurately predict the location and speed of the fire spread.
Problem Solution
In this project, we are observing and analyzing smoke plumes and creating a model that matches our observations. The most cost-effective and safe method of locating the heat source of a fire is observing smoke through computer modeling. The visualization of the density and concentration of fire plumes will aid firefighters in locating the fire more efficiently. In addition to this visualization and prediction model, we hope to add an audio aspect that will make our model applicable to real-world field situations. The audial system will use pitch and volume to communicate the heading, intensity, and location of a fire. Firefighters can receive this audial data in real-time and determine the best course of action for containing the fire.
We will use photos and air quality data from the Aztec Springs Prescribed Burn in Santa Fe, gathered by students of Dr. Dubey and Stephen Guerin. Based on our research and the previous Supercomputing Challenge project, Modeling Forest Fire Risks in New Mexico, the variables we will direct our focus towards are slope and wind. The model will set values for these variables based on GIS data for the area of the fire and observed movement of the smoke produced by the fire in order to predict the fires’ spread. The direction, speed, and intensity of the fire will be mapped to pitch and volume so that the information can be effectively and efficiently communicated with first responders.
Progress to Date
So far, we have completed a preliminary model in NetLogo that visualizes combustion three-dimensionally. Oxygen molecules move in Brownian motion and trees combust and release CO2. We are currently translating this model into agent script so it runs more efficiently and so that we can model different plume shapes and dynamics by manipulating the buoyancy and humidity curves based on altitude.
Expected results
Through this project, we hope to create a thoroughly researched, field applicable vector model of a smoke plume that will help visualize, analyze, and contain wildfires in the future. The data we collect and the model we produce will contribute to the ongoing research in wildfire management through computing. We hope to be able to determine the location of a fire through pictures or videos of its smoke plume and to put our research into practice to notify people where the fire is before firefighters are able to get there.
Team Members: M. Kingston, Lexington Smith, Django Beaudoin, Elisea Jackson
Sponsoring Teacher: Acacia McCombs
Mentors: Mohit Dubey, Stephen Guerin
Sources:
Guerin, Stephen. SFNFS Watershed Rx Burn. Photos of the prescribed burn in Santa Fe. 2021. Google Photos, Stephen Guerin, https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipPyrqtxKz8DapwpOtK1-V5YfWrKIsGH-b10COB4gzKHuOPCyCAqKKr8blyqFAjp1A?key=Zi1YdHF6cndnWVJLVnd3X05yYUFZVE9lRWVudWZB.
Hädrich, T., et al. “Stormscapes: Simulating Cloud Dynamics in the Now.†Computational Sciences Group, vol. Vol. 39, no. No. 6, Article 175., December 2020, p. 16. computationalscience.org, http://computationalsciences.org/publications/haedrich-2020-stormscapes/haedrich-2020-stormscapes.pdf.
Hautala, Laura. “Mapping a wildfire's path is getting easier, thanks to computers.†CNET, 20 November 2020, https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/features/mapping-a-wildfires-path-is-getting-easier-thanks-to-computers/.
Jansens, Rowan, et al. “It’s ‘Bout To Get Lit Up In Here.†supercomputingchallenge.org, 2020, https://supercomputingchallenge.org/19-20/finalreports/59/SCC_Final_Report.pdf.
Paugam, R., et al. “A review of approaches to estimate wildfire plume injection height within large-scale atmospheric chemical transport models.†Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015, https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/907/2016/acp-16-907-2016.pdf.
Team Members:
Madelyn Kingston
Django Beaudoin
Lexington Smith
Elisea Jackson
Sponsoring Teacher: Acacia McCombs