Mapping Wildfires in Southwest Colorado

Team: 33

School: San Juan College High

Area of Science: Environmental Science

Interim: Supercomputing

Interim Report
New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge Project Evaluation
School: San Juan College High School
Project Title: Mapping Wildfires in Southwest Colorado
Team Members Presenting: Francisco Gomez, Ashby Pandya, Amaya Olivas, and Gabriel Gurule
Teacher(s): Geizi Dejka
Team Number: 33

School Name: San Juan College High School

Area of Science: Environmental Science

Project Title: Mapping Wildfires in Southwest Colorado

Problem Definition:   
Ash from fire is an extremely small threat in size, but a very serious one in importance. Some ashes are over 30 times smaller than the width of one human stand of hair. Yet, smoke and other products of fire cause lung problems in humans and sight problems in animals. The objective of this project is to identify the possible path/route of the spreading of a wildfire if it starts within the Wolf Creek Pass area. While effectively providing information on a spreading wildfire for others, this area allows the team a personal understanding of the impact. As northwestern New Mexico residents, the location of spread would directly impact the team. This personal relation furthers interest and excitement to complete the project and observe the results. This project has the potential to save the health of humans and animals in the area.

Progress to Date: 
The team has analyzed and narrowed down three possible locations of the origin of the fire. This includes the West Fork Campground, the East Fork Campground, and the Wolf Creek overlook.The team is planning to visit the candidate campsites on February 11th to gather more data (via drone) and to visually determine the topography, vegetation type/condition and accessibility. As of the moment, team members are learning the basics of coding in NetLogo. This includes the actions of creating worlds, adding/changing colors from the color swatches in the tools and choosing/adding and placing turtles in the coordinates. Team members are attending NetLogo Wednesdays in order to better their knowledge, as well as receive help for the specifics of their code. Coding extensions have also been analyzed in order to provide a base for the project. Sections from several extensions have been noted, and the team has developed a plan that will be original whilst exploring the helpful resources that have been provided by Netlogo.

Expected Results and Problem Solution: 

The team is expected to create a computer model that will simulate the spreading of a wildfire that may start from a campsite within the Wolf Creek Pass. This simulation shows the possible route of a wildfire through pine beetle kills as affected by wind velocity, elevation and vegetation density. Through consideration of these factors, the coded wildfire will migrate the map, which would allow users to see the most-likely fire routes. This simulation will be as close to accurate as possible, and can be used as an early warning system to warn property owners near the area for an early evacuation if a real wildfire happens. This can save lives as well as property. Firefighters can be informed of places in need of mitigation measures to contain the fire and prevent significant damage. This mitigation can be achieved by spraying homes in the path of fire with slimy gel fire retardant. Additionally, for fire prevention through prescribed burning, the data could provide the predicted area of a prescribed burn should it be induced. This will help maintain a healthy forest area, and allow for plant growth. The expectation for this model is to have a few flaws, such as an inaccurate number of affected trees, and inaccurate drought conditions. 

Sources:
Grossman, S. (2021). 2021 Was Uniquely Disastrous - And, maybe, the best we can hope for. User account. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://infoweb.newsbank.com/apps/news/document-view?p=NewsBank&t=&sort=YMD_date%3AD&fld-base-0=alltext&maxresults=20&val-base-0=Dixie+Fire&docref=news%2F18735C7362C5DB00 
Staff, E. (2021, January 27). Missionary ridge fire. Articles | Colorado Encyclopedia. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://coloradoencyclopedia.org/article/missionary-ridge-fire 
Saldanha, A., Romero, F., Wells, C., & Glantz, A. (2021). Dangerous Air: As California Burns, America Breathes Toxic Smoke - Americans across the country are breathing more wildfire smoke—and the harmful particles it carries—than they did 10 years ago, and their health is suffering the consequences. User account. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://infoweb.newsbank.com/apps/news/document-view?p=NewsBank&t=&sort=YMD_date%3AD&maxresults=20&f=advanced&val-base-0=dixie+wildfire&fld-base-0=alltext&docref=news%2F1854B9D824822D18 
Belvons, J. (2021, June 3). The slow fade of Colorado's mountain pine beetle triggers shifts in timber industry. The Colorado Sun. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/31/colorado-pine-beetle-epidemic-waning-timber-industry/  
Moench, R. (1999). Forestry - static.colostate.edu. Vegetative Recovery after Wildfire. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://static.colostate.edu/client-files/csfs/pdfs/06309.pdf

Team Members:

  Gabriel Gurule
  Francisco Gomez
  Ashby Pandya
  Amaya Olivas

Sponsoring Teacher: Geizi Dejka

Mail the entire Team