Team: 20
School: Truman Mid
Area of Science: Climate Change
Interim:
Relationship Between Increase of CO2 and Climate Change
New Mexico Supercomputer Challenge
Truman Middle School
Team
Sebastian Puentes
Yahir Prieto
Teacher
Natali Barreto Baca
The Causes of Climate Change
Human activities are driving the global warming trend observed since the mid-20th century. Since the Industrial Revolution, the global annual temperature has increased in total by a little more than 1 degree Celsius, or about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Between 1880—the year that accurate record keeping began—and 1980, it rose on average by 0.07 degrees Celsius (0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) every 10 years. Since 1981, however, the rate of increase has more than doubled: For the last 40 years, we’ve seen the global annual temperature rise by 0.18 degrees Celsius, or 0.32 degrees Fahrenheit, per decade.(1)
Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar radiation that have bounced off the earth’s surface. Normally this radiation would escape into space, but these pollutants, which can last for years to centuries in the atmosphere, trap the heat and cause the planet to get hotter. These heat-trapping pollutants—specifically carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, and synthetic fluorinated gases—are known as greenhouse gases, and their impact is called the greenhouse effect.(2)
Research
Scientists agree that human activity is the primary driver of what we’re seeing now worldwide.(1) The unchecked burning of fossil fuels over the past 150 years has drastically increased the presence of atmospheric greenhouse gases, most notably carbon dioxide. At the same time, logging and development have led to the widespread destruction of forests, wetlands, and other carbon sinks—natural resources that store carbon dioxide and prevent it from being released into the atmosphere.(3)
Right now, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are the highest they’ve been in the last 800,000 years. Some greenhouse gases, like hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HFCs), do not even exist in nature. By continuously pumping these gases into the air, we helped raise the earth’s average temperature by about 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century—which has brought us to our current era of deadly, and increasingly routine, weather extremes. And it’s important to note that while climate change affects everyone in some way, it doesn’t do so equally: All over the world, people of color and those living in economically disadvantaged or politically marginalized communities bear a much larger burden, despite the fact that these communities play a much smaller role in warming the planet.(3)
The Greenhouse Effect
A simplified animation of the greenhouse effect. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
Our ways of generating power for electricity, heat, and transportation, our built environment and industries, our ways of interacting with the land, and our consumption habits together serve as the primary drivers of climate change. While the percentages of greenhouse gases stemming from each source may fluctuate, the sources themselves remain relatively consistent.(4) Scientists attribute the global warming trend observed since the mid-20th century to the human expansion of the "greenhouse effect" — warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. Life on Earth depends on energy coming from the Sun. About half the light energy reaching Earth's atmosphere passes through the air and clouds to the surface, where it is absorbed and radiated in the form of infrared heat. About 90% of this heat is then absorbed by greenhouse gases and re-radiated, slowing heat loss to space.(5)
Human Activity Is the Cause of Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Over the last century, burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This increase happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities has increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by nearly 50% since 1750. This increase is due to human activities, because scientists can see a distinctive isotopic fingerprint in the atmosphere.(5)
Climate NASA gov
Carbon Dioxide
LATEST MEASUREMENT: November 2022
420 ppm
Data source: Monthly measurements (average seasonal cycle removed). Credit: NOAA
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping gas, or greenhouse gas, that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), from wildfires, and from natural processes like volcanic eruptions. The first graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, in recent years, with natural, seasonal changes removed. The second graph shows CO2 levels during Earth’s last three glacial cycles, as captured by air bubbles trapped in ice sheets and glaciers.(6) Since the beginning of industrial times (in the 18th century), human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50% – meaning the amount of CO2 is now 150% of its value in 1750. This is greater than what naturally happened at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. The animated map shows how global carbon dioxide has changed over time. Note how the map changes colors as the amount of CO2 rises from 365 parts per million (ppm) in 2002 to over 400 ppm currently. (“Parts per million†refers to the number of carbon dioxide molecules per million molecules of dry air.) These measurements are from the mid-troposphere, the layer of Earth's atmosphere that is 8 to 12 kilometers (about 5 to 7 miles) above the ground.(5, 6)
Data source: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Credit: NASA
Solving the Problem
We can make robust data-driven and model-based predictions about future climate change and, combined with a better understanding of Earth’s climate system, come to our own conclusions about “how the relationship Between CO2 and Climate Change†that can help to better understand “Climate Change†and make sense of guides to climate change policy.
Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change could prevent millions of premature deaths due to air pollution over the next century, according a new study funded by NIEHS.(7)
To work in this project, our team is collecting data to create simulations and predictions using the Starlogo Nova programming language. We will use NASA Global Climate Change, UCAR Center for Science Education, My NASA DATA website, and different scientific websites to obtain important information to solve our problem.
OUR GOAL
Our model will be an important tool for improving our understanding and predictability of climate change due to CO2 on seasonal, annual, decadal, and centennial time scales. Our Model will investigate the degree to which observed climate changes may be due to the Cause of Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations such as CO2.
References and Notes
What is the Atmosphere? UCAR Center for Science Education.
The Climate System. UCAR Center for Science Education.
Global Temperature. NASA Global Climate Change.
Carbon Dioxide. NASA Global Climate Change.
Climate Data Mapper. NOAR Climate gov.
The Causes of Climate Change. NASA Global Climate Change.
Human Activity Is the Cause of Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations. NASA Global Climate Change.
Team Members:
Yahir Prieto
Sebastian Puentes
Sponsoring Teacher: Natali M Barreto