Forecasting Earthquakes

Team: 51

School: St. Thomas Aquinas

Area of Science: Earth and Space Sciences


Interim: Earthquakes are caused when tectonic plates get stuck or suddenly slip past each other due to friction. The boundaries of the plates are made up of many faults, which are where earthquakes occur. The size of the fault, amount of slip on the fault, and intensity of the earthquake determine the type of the earthquake. To predict earthquakes and help make earthquakes safer, many earthquake models are made. Last year, I made a model that had two kinds of different structures, and an expanding foci to represent the wave of an earthquake. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science-earthquakes
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-earthquake-and-what-causes-them-happen
The point aboveground where the earthquake begins is called the epicenter, right above the underground hypocenter. The sudden release of energy at the hypocenter caused by the shift or sudden stop of the plates emulates waves and aftershocks of the earthquake. https://www.mtu.edu/geo/community/seismology/learn/earthquake-cause/
These waves, created when masses of rock straining against one another suddenly fracture and crumble against each other, are known as seismic waves. Additionally, the “rock-strain” energy released when the plates stop moving or grating against each other contribute to the seismic waves and overall strength.
https://www.britannica.com/science/earthquake-geology
https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/earth-hazards/earthquakes/
Before, this project only had two types of structure, and no clear way to distinguish them. I changed the structures to three; reinforced-steel, concrete, and brick. I also made sliders for changing the number of houses of each type of house material. If the houses collapse, their “material” label turns into the negative health of the house. I am in the process of incorporating the factor of magnitude into my model. I also am going to try and incorporate the type of fault by April as well.


Mentor - Eric Vigil




Team Members:

  Ethan Ong

Sponsoring Teacher: Eric Vigil

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