Team: 1008
School: Gadsden Mid
Area of Science: Epidemiology
Interim: Team number: 1008
School name: Gadsden Middle School
Area of science: Epidemiology
Project: Measles spread in a non-vaccinated vs. vaccinated environment
Team members: Melody Pantoja and Yakov Esparza
Problem Definition
Sources:
https://www.nfid.org/infectious-diseases/facts-about-measles-for-adults/
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/08/190821111813.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/transmission.html
Measles is a virus that is spreads through talking, coughing, and breathing. Even being near an infected person can make you sick with the measles. Measles virus is airborne, and the symptoms normally take 10-12 days to develop, but may take as many as 7 to 21 days. The symptoms of measles normally are a high fever, rashes, runny nose, pink watery eyes, coughing, diarrhea, and earache. To prevent measles, there is a vaccine called the MMR which prevents the Mumps, Measles, and Rubella. Some people do not believe in vaccination, so the measles is spreading more and more in the U.S.A.
We will be using Starlogonova to simulate what is happening in cities where people are spreading measles. Research shows that schools with not vaccinated kids at 5% not vaccinated will increase the chance of an outbreak by 4% in a community. According to David Sinclair, Ph. D., “At current vaccination rates, there’s a significant chance of an outbreak involving more than 400 people right now in some Texas cities.†Measles is so contagious, that 90% of the people who are not immune or vaccinated will get it. We will use our school population. Our question will be, if 5% of our school is not vaccinated, how will measles affect the school population?
Problem Solution
not vaccinated people can cause an outbreak of measles at a school and in the community. We will research at the elementary, middle, and high school level, what the student population is to see what would be the outbreak number of measles if 5% of parents and students refused to become vaccinated.
The solution of this would be to show the importance of keeping our schools 100% vaccinated to parents, school board members, and superintendents.
Progress to date
In our StarLogoNova model, the white agents are the not vaccinated healthy population and the red ones are the measles infected population. We will start with 2 infected people with a 5% not vaccinated. The 95% of the population will be vaccinated and unable to be vaccinated. We will use the healthy population of Gadsden elementary, middle school, and high school populations.
The only people who can get measles are the people who are not vaccinated. We will make it so that 5% of the population is not vaccinated and there is 1 person infected with measles who brings the infection to the school. We will run and track the number of people that become infected based on the elementary school, middle school, and high school.
We will change the amount of people not vaccinated to 10% and track the same results.
We will change the amount of people not vaccinated to 15% and track the same results.
Expected Results
If 1 student out of the whole school had measles to start an infection and 5% were not vaccinated, at an elementary school there is less students and movement, so there is less of a chance for a lot of students to get measles.
If 1 student out of the whole school had measles to start an infection and 5% were not vaccinated, at a middle school or high school, the infection rate would be higher because there is more people and more movement.
Team Members:
Sponsoring Teacher: Danielle McFarland