Team: 1016
School: Monte del Sol
Area of Science: Wild Sciences
Interim: Team Number: #1016
School Name: Monte Del Sol
Area of Science: Wildfires
Project Title: Wildfire Spread
Problem Definition:
Last year forest fires burned millions of acres of forest in the western United States, and 4.5 million American homes have been affected. The spread of forest fires can be influenced by many factors, such as an area’s humidity, wind speed, fuel type, elevation, among others. Our group wants to examine some of these variables so that we can collect data, make predictions, and understand how we may better handle wildfires in the future.
Problem Solution:
We are using the NetLogo agent-based modeling program to generate data in different areas. One model tests the effect of wind, while the second model examines different types of vegetation. Another model tests humidity and the last one manipulates elevation. Once we run trials in each model, we will compare our data and observe which factors affect wildfires the most, which affect them the least, and which one might generate an approach that we can use to solve the problem. It will also be interesting to see how these interact once we put them all together in one model.
Progress to Date:
Our overall progress so far is we have met with two of our mentors. The first was a firefighter who talked to us about how fire spreads and how we can prevent or reduce the chance of a fire spread. We also met with a code mentor who looked over our four Netlogo models and gave us feedback on how we can make it better. Our models are almost complete, and we would like to combine the four into one. We decided to test these variables based on our information obtained in our interview and online research about which factors influence the spread of forest fires.
Expected Results:
We expect to create a fully-functioning model through the refinement of these variables: vegetation, wind, elevation, and humidity. We hope to help predict the spread of wildfires based on these prominent conditions that affect, shape, and alter their course. By finding both the most and the least optimal conditions for wildfires, we can help to better gage appropriate preventative actions to cut down on wildfires and the successive spread of wildfires.
REFERENCES
Avraham, T. B. “Wildland Fire Behavior Presentation.†Santa Rosa Junior College.
Available at
https://canvas.santarosa.edu/courses/16434/pages/wild-land-fire-behavior-presentation?module_item_id=276922
Chudnoff, I. New Mexico Highlands University. Personal interview. November 22, 2019
Gabbert, B. “New Mexico Wildfire.†August 1, 2019
https://wildfiretoday.com/tag/new-mexico/
Insurance Information Institute “Facts + Status: Wildfires.†Available at
https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-wildfires
Untamed Science. “The Basics of Wildfires.†Available at from
https://untamedscience.com/biology/ecology/ecology-articles/the-science-of-wildfi
res/.
Team Members:
Nefi Guevara
Hebert Soto
Maximillian Montoya
Shayla Anthony
Sponsoring Teacher: Rhonda Crespo